Master Thesis Internship - Trustworthiness of CP‑VMI Demand Signals in Semiconductor Boom–Bust Cycles

• Semiconductor supply chains face structural boom--bust cycles driven by long and rigid production lead times, demand volatility, and capacity scarcity. To create
• planning stability, many manufacturers use Customer Program Vendor-Managed Inventory (CP-VMI) agreements. These contracts specify forecast commitments
• (e.g., weeks 1--6 fixed), pacing rules (e.g., 95\% pull requirements), upside flexibility caps, and liability clauses for forecast reductions.
• These mechanisms aim to stabilize near-term demand signals. However, during boom or bust periods, contractual constraints may cause customers to pad forecasts,
• delay downward revisions, or trigger end-period pull spikes. As a result, the manufacturer’s planning signal may diverge from true consumption—especially at market turning points.

Problem Statement

CP-VMI is designed for environments with stable demand. Semiconductor boom--bust cycles violate this assumption. It is currently unclear:
whether CP-VMI mechanisms dampen or amplify planning signal distortion,
how contract rules interact with cyclical demand regimes,
and which CP-VMI configurations improve robustness to bust-driven demand collapses and boom-driven surges.
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